One other consideration that plays into the mulliganing decision, I think, is the consitency of your deck. It’s why aggro decks mulligan better than control or late game decks. In a pure mono coloured aggro deck with a curve topping out at 2 or 3 CMC, there’s basically no combination of cards you can hold that you won’t be able to cast, provided you have at least 1-2 lands in your opener. That both makes it less likely that you need to mulligan, but also more likely that your 6 card hand will be acceptable. Control decks on the other hand typically play greedier mana bases and a mix of early game removal/ramp/durdles and late game wincons, which means that you’re much more likely to end up with un-keepable hands and more likely to mulligan into something that’s also un-keepable.

Outstanding work as always.

I think Comments has a point – even if you prefer the growth over the forcemage. Cutting a color is well and good, but the primary requisite for cutting a color is cutting playables. And while wall of fire may not unplayable in this format (it has its uses, which you discuss in the vids) it is much closer to a 23rd or sideboard card in most decks than a true playable. Since you picked the Boar over the first flunkies (a pick I disagree with btw, stay in color with such closely comparable creatures!) you might as well pick the card that starts to build a cohesive deck concept, rather than focus on cutting fringe cards. A late Wall of Fire is not going to push anyone into red, or convince someone on the fence to dive in.

To get a swamp on turn two for the knight and muckwaders requires about 1/8 of your deck to be swamps or 40/8 = 5 swamps.

To get a swamp by turn five for the essence drain requires about 1/11 of your deck to be swamp, a less stringent requirement.

So for those two cards, 6 swamps seems fine.

To get nighthawk by turn 3 would require about 2/9 of your deck to be swamp – or about 9 – the effect of only running 6 promotes the nighthawk in the curve to about a turn 6 or turn 7 play (turn 5 or 6 on the draw), which puts it in the “expensive curve topper” category – a pretty good role for it in this deck.

If you prefer titanic growth to forcemage, that is also fine. I do not particulary value forcemage, but it plays well in RG agro, often allowing 2-4 extra damage in, and I still think wall of fire is simply not a card in 95% of the decks, including this one.