Comments on: Unlocking the Vault #65: Best Chance to Get Into Vintage? http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/ The prime source for Magic the Gathering strategy Sat, 18 Feb 2017 22:21:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.8 By: enderfall http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-127116 Thu, 29 May 2014 03:10:33 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-127116 @Tim: It’s is going to be a long wait for the price of FoW to approach the prices it saw earlier this year. If you are willing to wait 9-12 months for the chance that the price is higher than 30 (still doubt we ever see 60+ again), then I would say hold on to it. I assure you FoW will not be 30 once VM is released. I can’t predict how low it will go, but there will be far more FoW opened via VM drafts than probably both of the releases of promo’s combined. If I was to guess at the low water point, I would say FoW reaches 15 after about 3 weeks of drafting VM… of course, the switch over to v4 will also have a lot of say in that. If that doesn’t go well and people start selling their collections, then FoW could go even lower (as with all of the other cards from Standard through Vintage).

]]> By: Tim http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-127094 Thu, 29 May 2014 02:39:52 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-127094 So, what about us saps who have a promo FOW we’ll never play that crashed in price? Should we sell at ~30, where FOW is now, or wait until after VM is gone and the price creeps up again?

]]> By: enderfall http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-126863 Wed, 28 May 2014 21:41:08 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-126863 Thanks for the comments everyone. I’ll address them individually:

@twoflowers: I agree, Wasteland isn’t nearly as ubiquitous in Vintage as in Legacy, but those mana denial/tempo decks really lean on Wasteland to help them succeed in a field of Powered decks. I bet most people will initially gravitate to Powered decks, especially Control/Combo decks because no one has been able to play them online yet (Legacy and Classic were chock full of Wasteland decks). For the players that don’t want to play those decks, Wasteland is nearly required. As for the price of Wasteland, it will go up if only because there will be some increase in demand as Vintage players and presumably more Legacy players show up online no that FoW and duals are MUCH cheaper. They will want Wasteland and thus the price will go up unless supply does as well. hopefully, they’ll print the new art in a promo quickly.

@Simon: Thanks for the math. I hope that they do keep rarity ratios the same for foil Power. 14x rare seems about right.

@ates sekban: I wouldn’t say anything is priceless, but those prices do seem reasonable for the first couple of days after VM is released. Demand will far outpace supply for a couple weeks with regards to power.

@Scott Fielder: Thanks, I was looking for Part 2 in the free section so I missed it. Here is the link: http://www.quietspeculation.com/2014/05/a-vintage-dredge-primer-pt-2/ Yes, Dredge is absurdly cheap for even Modern, let alone Vintage.

]]> By: Jonas/Maxeel/ilsken http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-125406 Tue, 27 May 2014 23:11:50 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-125406 Really great article! And I agree with what Twoflowers say about wasteland. It is in a lot of decks, but many run without them.

]]> By: Scott Fielder http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-125158 Tue, 27 May 2014 18:30:01 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-125158 Great article. I am really looking forward to Vintage Masters and picked up on how cheap dredge will be and got the deck for right around 300 tix, which is obsurd. Also part 2 of my primer is up on Quiet Spec.

]]> By: ates sekban http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-125002 Tue, 27 May 2014 15:55:01 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-125002 ı want to play vintage at some point but ı also realisticly thinking want to gain some value by not only having one piece of P9 after drafts but also the chance to trade it for a huuuuge price like a lot ı mean really a lot , because this is ”di” Black lotus or the Moxes we are talking about , right?
in the first days and weeks of vintage drafts the card prices must be:

Black Lotus priceless
Ancestral Recall priceless
Time Walk 175
Mox Sapphire 175
Mox Jet 100
Mox Emerald 100
Mox Ruby 125
Mox Pearl 125

:))

]]> By: Simon Goertzen http://www.mtgoacademy.com/unlocking-the-vault-65-best-chance-to-get-into-vintage/comment-page-1/#comment-124558 Tue, 27 May 2014 08:45:30 +0000 http://www.mtgoacademy.com/?p=29523#comment-124558 Each pack of Vintage Masters comes with 14 regular cards and 1 foil/special card. There are 9 P9 cards, 30 mythics and 105 rares, with relative rarities 1:2:4. Hence you need to open 480 = 2*30 + 4*105 packs to collect 4 rare sets, 2 mythic sets, and 1 P9 set. At that point, you will have opened 480 – 9 = 471 foil cards. Assuming that foil cards follow the same rarity distribution as regular cards, you end up with a foil:regular ratio of 471/(14*480) = 0.07 = 7%.
In other words, for every regular Black Lotus opened, there is 7% of a foil Black Lotus opened as well, and that holds for every single card in Vintage Masters. A foil P9 set is about 14.3 times as rare as a regular P9 set.

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