Quiet Speculation: Parallel Universes
February 8, 2010 by: Kelly Reid
The last month has seen some fairly ground-shaking price changes in paper Magic. Tarmogoyf has solidified itself as “new power” by reaching $100, and Force of Will is well on its way. The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is fetching over $200, and other Legacy powerhouses are pushing new highs daily. Magic Online will soon be hosting the Legacy format, and the release of Urza’s Saga will add some highly anticipated cards to the Classic pool, including the final piece of the Dream Halls/Show and Tell Combo deck. Let’s take a look at what some Legacy cards are doing in Magic Online.
Tarmogoyf – It would be a sin to start anywhere else. Tarmogoyf’s meteoric rise on cardboard has been paralleled by its digital doppelganger. At press time, Tarmogoyf was $62 on major sites. It’s been creeping up slowly, and $60 may not be the end. MTGO prices are being fueled by PTQs as predicted, so his price will surely drop at the end of the season. Unlike on paper, Legacy is not driving prices yet. It seems likely for Tarmogoyf to settle at $50 during the off-season.
Force of Will – The iconic counterspell is actually more expensive online than it is on paper! This is somewhat shocking, but also quite telling of the market’s reaction to Legacy’s arrival. Even though Legacy is still months, perhaps even a year away, the staples are becoming quite expensive. It helps that they’re clearly a staple in Classic, but Force of Will is an absolute non-negotiable 4-of in Legacy. At $60, we’ll hope that Force of Will is done climbing, but it’s possible to see a bump when Legacy events start firing.
Entomb – It’s only about 30% as expensive as the paper version, but it still weighs in at $11. It’s basically a tutor for Reanimator decks and other graveyard-abusers, and it could see a large increase in price if a Legacy deck comes to the fore that uses a full playset. At $11, it’s not investment-quality but if you’re planning to build a Reanimator deck, it might be better to pick them up now than later.
Wasteland – Wasteland is approximately on par with its paper version as well. Listed at $11, the crucial land destruction card will probably remain somewhat stable in price due to the fact that Tempest is a fairly recent set online. Still, the card remains an important factor in the format so don’t go selling yours if Legacy is on your mind.
Ancient Tomb - $5-6 on paper, $2 or less online. It suffers from the same issue as Wasteland – Tempest is not exactly rare online, but it’s an extremely powerful mana accelerant. It has room to grow, so stockpiling them could be a smart move. $2 is not exactly cheap, but there’s a chance for serious growth in the long-term.
The Dual Lands - While the 10 old-school duals all have different prices, Underground Sea is clearly the flagship of the fleet. Online versions are selling at about 60% of the paper price, but considering that Masters Edition 2 is not terribly recent, there is a chance for the price to sway higher as Legacy becomes relevant.
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale - Oddly enough, Online Tabernacles have seen a 300% price increase since the Legacy announcement. Unfortunately, they’re still only at $4.50, compared to $200+ paper version. This is to be expected since Legends was a very short-printed set and it’s absolutely ancient. Online, Masters Edition 3 is fairly recent set and not very rare. $5 is about where the card should be Online, but it could go higher as ME3 becomes more scarce over the next year or two.
There’s a big difference between Online Classic and Legacy. Classic is a made-up format, designed to provide Eternal players with their “fix” until Legacy became a format. Legacy is undergoing an unprecedented renaissance in paper magic thanks to Legacy Grands Prix and the Star City Games 10k series. Access to relevant formats at any time of day or night is the biggest appeal of Magic Online, and once players realize that Legacy is cheaper online and the format is accessible 24/7, we can expect a rise in the price of the format as a whole. If you intend on playing Legacy competitively, start acquiring your staples now.
See you in two weeks,
Kelly Reid
If Donny’s hooked, we are all f’d!
Academy_PointsGoyf, was under $30 until extended season rolled around, but everyone knew he was going to be dominant. Do we really think he is going to be as high as $50 online during the off season this time around? I know goyf is a precedent setter/breaker but that is somewhat shocking.
Force of Will – any thoughts on the rampant discussion that it will be reprinted in MED4 (or at least a future MED edition). In general what do people think about projecting legacy card values (and speculation based on this) given the uncertainty surrounding what WOTC will do with future printings?
Academy_PointsThe fact that MTGO is somewhat a “free for all” for card reprints has always disturbed me a bit. I know that Magic has the conflict of being a game and a collectible and therefore you have contradicting interests. I wish Wizards would make their “reprint policy” online a bit clearer but as it seems it’s rather getting more and more blurry. Apparently Phyrexian Negator is reprinted in paper in the boxed set “Phyrexia vs. Coalition” and Negator is on the Reserved List….
Academy_PointsI know that the clause in the lists explicitely states that a card can be reprinted as special promo/foil/etc. but that does not really make a huge difference in some cases. What do we get next? Black Lotus as foil promo?
I don’t believe WOTC has ever made any explicit statements regarding the fate of online oddballs that are much rarer than reason dictates (ie. Force of Will and Deed). However, I do think that WOTC has realized that explicitly stating that certain cards will never be reprinted in paper has painted themselves into a corner. While they want a healthy secondary market because it fuels the “collectible” nature of the game they also do not *really* want formats to become as exclusive as vintage has become. Frankly, I think WOTC should completely do away with the “reserved list” (after giving ample notice) and should certainly be willing to reprint cards (and even whole editions) online after their initial run.
PS – Plejades, it would be great if their were some way to see the number of comments on a given article without having to click on it specifically.
Academy_PointsThe “Reserved List” is a hot and sensitive topic. I imagine it would be pretty hard, even with ample notice, to prevent huge swings (mostly downwards) of card prices in case they decide to kill it.
We will work something out to show the number of comments on each article in the “preview box”.
Academy_PointsI agree about the difficulty of abandoning the reserved list at this point. Never-the-less, I believe that will be the eventual outcome of these experiments that WOTC is running regarding the reprinting of certain “reserved” cards. Negator *was* iconic, but doesn’t see play these days and is the perfect type of card to start sending the early signals that the Reserved List may be going away in the next few years without actually making an announcement that would drastically depress prices. Savvy dealers will start trying to actively unload some of their equity in power so that they don’t lose their shirts when the inevitable happens.
Negator today, tomorrow Force of Will, eventually Lotus … yep, I really believe that WOTC will eventually release Power.
Imagine the margin that WOTC could make on a “From the Vault: Power” (though I would never release all of it at once – better to make people buy 6 or 7 $200 sets). I mean they could charge $999.99 for 9-10 cards and it would be a steal for the purchaser. Would it be so bad in terms of long term value if there were several thousand more copies of lotus and moxen running around. The old moxen would probably drop from ~$600 to closer to $300, but they would still have cache for collectors beyond what the new versions have so they would certainly retain a good portion of their value.
Anyway that my $0.02 on what this “violation” of the reprint policy really means…
Academy_PointsI have 17 Ancient Tombs! Yehaw!
Academy_PointsAlmost none of the cards specifically named in this article are on the Reserved List. Tabernacle is, and the duals are, but everything else is either recent or printed at uncommon rarity. Force of Will was always viable for M10 and M11 (what would it do to Standard?). Tarmogoyf and Mana Drain, technically yes, but practically no.
Assume that the Reserved List doesn’t exist anymore. When speculating about future reprints and their prices, ask yourself:
1) Is it printable in a core set?
2) Is it printable, but only in a boxed set like DD or FtV?
3) Is this card so stupid that Wizards wants it to be as rare as possible?
And so:
#1 = Force of Will (never reserved), Blood Moon, Sword of Fire and Ice, Vindicate
#2 = Dark Ritual, Balance, Lion’s Eye Diamond, Tabernacle, Daze, Gush, Null Rod
#3 = Tarmogoyf, Wasteland, Mox Sapphire, Yawgmoth’s Will, Strip Mine (heh, it was reprinted after all)
#1 cards will lose most of their value when their day comes, like Meddling Mage and Pithing Needle. #2 cards will keep most of their value, especially if the boxed set version is ugly. #3 cards are the closest thing to a safe investment that MTGO has. Although remember, nix-pax drafts will happen forever. MVW started again yesterday. Someone somewhere probably just drafted a fresh Null Rod.
Academy_Points