Simon Says #25: Draft Dynamics and M13 Draft

Posted on August 30, 2012 by Simon Goertzen

Each of us knows how to draft, but what really happens at the table? In the opening discussion of this episode, I try to model some of the dynamics developing in an 8-player draft. Make sure to check it out if you want to know more about these dynamics and how to improve your understanding with the help of the Draft Viewer.

For official World Magic Cup 2012 coverage, click here.
To explore the WMC Day 1 draft with Wizards’ Draft Viewer, click here.
And to watch Alexander Hayne’s Draft Tech with Brian David-Marshall, click here.

Follow me on Twitter @simongoertzen,
or check out my Tumblr entitled Strategic Thoughts.

 

  1. Really enjoyed the intro video and draft, but it looks like round 1 might be screwed up (The video pops up but sits at 0:00 length and doesn’t load). I don’t want to spoil round 2 for myself, so haven’t checked to see if that works.

    Anyone else having trouble with the rd 1 video?

  2. Same problem here, round 1 seems corrupted. Really frustrating as this seemed like an interesting deck.

  3. Hi guys,
    sorry about that. I checked my video file and it runs fine, which makes me believe that the error is on the side of YouTube. Sadly, I can’t do anything about it, so let’s hope that A.J. is still awake and able to fix this.
    -Simon

  4. Well, I went ahead and watched all the videos – your deck was seriously amazing. I really liked how your cards synergised very well together.

    Out of curiosity, do you ever live draft on tiwtch / livestream or something similar? I’d really enjoy watching your draft live at some point.

    Again, thanks for the great content!

  6. Hi Simon,

    I really like your explanations and then following it up with a very good example of what you were ‘preaching’ is very nice. a shame that the game 1 is corrupted, but the other vids look great. The reasoning in what to sideboard and why also helps a lot.
    Keep up the good work :)

    Maarten

  7. Hey Simon,

    Great opening discussion. The past two have been really informative, and really put a finger on the harder to grasp elements of magic. Thanks for the uploads!

  8. I really wanted to look at Round 1 but like everybody else, the video link wasn’t working.

    So I dug around a bit and worked out the url has a typo in it. Below is the correct url until the MTGO Academy staff edit the correct link in :).

    Simon Says #25 – Round 1, Draft Dynamics and M13 Draft, 30 August 2012:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7-8cmwBS_g

    Love the videos as always Simon.

  12. Really liked the discussion, as always :)

    One thing I noticed when watching the draft: The Duskmantle Prowler could easily be a trap, because the pack had both Giant Scorpion and Servant of Nefarox when you saw it the first time. Don’t think it would have changed the later decisions much but it’s something to notice.

  14. Egad, sorry everyone! I fixed the link above for Round 1 now. (I had set it up a couple of days ago but left an extra hyphen in it). Would have done it last night (US East), but I had to go to bed quite early to wake up for an early morning appointment.

    Atropine (and Simon), thanks for determining the link and posting it above.

  16. Thanks for the videos.

    In match 3, game 1 — on turn 5, you made the reasonable read of faerie invaders, which turned out to be correct. My instinct was to play the prowler and ajani the war falcon, attacking with a 5/4, and then getting the ring going the following turn. This opens up ajani for one turn (attacked down to 2), but seems better to me.

    If you feel strongly about the faerie invaders read, but don’t like the above play, is equipping ring and passing better than trading?

  17. Hi Simon,

    Your opening discussions are what set you apart from anybody else that posts draft videos that I know about. I really enjoyed your foray into game theory as it pertains to drafting. There is indeed much to be explored in this area as every set contains the favoured archetypes which often rely on particular cards. Having recently begun casually playing this game after more than a decade of absence, I have greatly benefitted from your insightful analysis that others attain only through a lot of play and even then only gain a vague sense of what the best practice is. I really hope that you will continue to set yourself apart from others who seem to entirely rely on empirical evidence over first principles. While on the topic of card game analysis what books would you recommend?

    Thank you and I hope that you keep elevating the discussion.

  18. I wonder in M3G1 why you chose to play the ring and equip it instead of playing the exalted creature.
    The exalted creature would have allowed you to play around faerie invaders for a turn, and the ring could have come down the next turn.

    You didn’t discuss the line of play in the video. What was your reasoning?

    Thanks

  19. On the topic of…

    streaming: I do in fact stream irregularly at twitch.tv/simongoertzen. Sadly, my account was not set up to store my videos over a longer period of time. What I did, however, do, was to upload one of my streamed cube drafts to YouTube by popular request: https://www.youtube.com/simongoertzen. I would love to do more streaming in the future as I enjoy it and I feel like it is going to be an important part of Magic’s (or MTGO’s) future. However, my busy schedule as well as the European time zone make it a bit tougher for me to stream compared to others.

    preaching: I wouldn’t call it preaching, but as you can witness in this series I live by what I teach. Very rarely will you see me drafting a deck that violates my fundamental philosophies or my view of the game. Furthermore, I think that good modeling and a working framework is something everyone profits from, independent from the level of experience. Even though Simon Says is “getting old” for internet standards, I’m constantly trying to find new ways of transporting these insights.

    @Neon: During editing, I realized that my argumentation regarding Attended Knight were off because of first strike. I don’t really know what happened there (maybe I wrongly thought he would somehow pump Watercourser after first strike damage), but thankfully it was only a minor slip-up. Regarding the “Trap” laid by Duskmantle Prowler, I already had so many white cards that I didn’t think I’d need (nor want) very many black cards anyway, so that was not really a concern. It’s possible that I should have taken Chandra’s Fury, but I’m not a big fan of moving into red because of an effect like that. Black has the exalted commons that offer high utility in a dedicated BW deck, which makes it more interesting even if it might be “overdrafted”.

    Regarding Match 3, Game 1, Turn 5: Playing around Faerie Invaders in this case is not about losing a creature due to an ambush, or to push through with an 5/4 Falcon, but about protecting Ajani. The only way I can see myself losing with a Planeswalker against UB control is by him having both the Invaders as well as a Solution to the Falcon (Murder would be the simplest example). From then on, his Faerie Invaders would threaten Ajani, his Walls hold off any ground offense, and his remaining cards likely allow him to deal with Battleflight Eagle (if I draw the 5th land in time).

    My line of play forces him to use his Faerie Invaders defensively because of Vigilance. If he has a Murder, he still gets air superiority but has to take the hit by the falcon to keep the Invaders whether it is 4/3 or 5/4. If my Falcon lives, it is going to grow in my upkeep, which easily compensates for the 1 missed damage of exalted. As it happened, he took the trade (which he wouldn’t if he had another solution to the Falcon), and I was able to equip another creature in the same turn.

    In short: Trading our only fliers at a point where I have an active planeswalker puts me in a great position and significantly reduces the negative impact of him topdecking removal in the next few turns.

    @om3n: Thanks for all the praise. It’s great to know that so many people are enjoying my show and the overall style. My goal is to offer you the most educational limited video series on the web. Concerning reading, if you like abstract stuff, Decision Theory covers a lot of the things that are revelant for Magic. Other than that, I think it’s misleading to look for “card game analysis”, as almost all other card games (Poker, Bridge) are very different from Magic. For example, I find that Magic is much more similar to boardgames than it is to Poker or Bridge. You can find very important lessons in Magic articles, but also written/recorded content on chess, Starcraft, or boardgaming might help you sharpen your skills. To understand games, you need to understand the decision-making process of the interacting players.

  20. Simon,

    Just wanted to say you consistently put out the most educational, most insightful content out there. And I watch a lot of draft videos. Love the lessons you put forth in the Intros as well as the draft/gameplay as well, obviously.

    Keep doing what you do.

  22. Your matches ran really fast, did you take the chance to look at what the other players were running?

    I am curious if the white just wasn’t in the packs or if all the people who you didn’t face pulled it all.

    I am also wondering as to the overall power level of the draft. Based on what your opponents showed plus what you had it just seemed like mediocre packs. It was very interesting to hear you look at the packs and talk about how there was no white but you weren’t pulled to another color either.

    Lastly, another great video, thanks!

  23. Another brilliant introduction (fascinating draft pick graphic that you created — thanks!) and great, highly informed and informative game play. Thank you!

  24. *sigh* Peter’s question about walking into the Faerie Invaders was one I had too, and Simon, your response has shown me how two-dimensional and — let’s be frank — poor my battlefield/strategic analysis is.

    Thanks, as always, for the great content!

  25. Thx for the great content!

    I would like to ask though, why did you put a zombie goliath over a hill giant (prized elephant) in the main deck? A 3/3 for 4 seems a better deal than a 4/3 for 5 to me, plus the elephant is white which works better with the ring. What is your reasoning there?

  26. I think you should have taken the kitesail at the end of pack 2 – it is very good at making your small white creatures relevant in the lategame. Your justification for not taking is was that you had enough creature enhancements already, but you could just not play the dark favors for it. You had about a 0% chance of playing the reckless brute (as well as your deck being very good against it, having 2 attended knights), whereas kitesail would actually be good in your deck, so it seemed wrong to pass it there.

    In pack 3, I think you should’ve considered moving into green when you saw the packleader. You already had a prey upon and an elephant, and your black wasn’t spectacular. The packleader was the strongest card in the pack, and getting one 3rd is a bit of a signal. When you saw the centaur courser in the next pack I think it was clear that green is open to your right.